Forecast until 2030

Here the real estate prices continue to rise. In some places, demand for housing is still greater than supply. Here real estate for years become more expensive. Where square meter prices could continue to rise in the coming years, a new Postbank study reveals.

In more than half of German districts and cities, real estate owners can assume that their house or apartment will gain in value until at least the year 2030. One of the reasons for the high demand on the housing market is the growing number of inhabitants in the metropolises and in southern Germany, according to a published study commissioned by Postbank.

For the forecast economists of the Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) calculated a model from regional data on population and age structure, income development, housing expenditure and housing supply. So they want to predict the development of property prices from 2017 to 2030. Inflation is excluded.

Price development flattens off

According to Munich, the absolute increase in prices will be recorded with a real 1.5 per cent per annum - and the Bavarian metropolis is already the most expensive city in Germany anyway. Currently, a property there costs on average 6790 euros per square meter. In 2017, prices had risen by 8.6 percent. "However, the times of the price jumps in the metropolises are likely to come to an end," explained Eva Grunwald, divisional director for retail banking at Postbank. The price trend flat increasingly.

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Düsseldorf and Hamburg follow in the ranking with a real price increase of about one percent each. Berlin real estate, which rose on average 11.4 percent last year, is expected to become more expensive by 2030 by only 0.5 percent per annum. They currently cost 3680 euros per square meter. According to the forecast, the annual price increase for Berlin is comparatively moderate at 0.53 percent.

Heilbronn in Baden-Württemberg could prove to be a good investment for buyers, because the forecasted annual price increase is highest there with three percent. Currently one square meter costs on average 2530 euros. According to Postbank in the south of the republic, general conditions for investors are almost always good. However, the prices would often be there beyond the 3000 euros.

"At particularly high prices buyers should look very closely," said Grunwald. "There is a risk that expected value gains have already been speculative in current housing prices."

Negative is the price development for homeowners in the eastern states outside the cities as well as in the Ruhr area and Saarland. She advises Grunwald to keep in mind that "living in a home - even in old age - is a high value".

Sourche:  N-TV